基于GM（1,1）模型的医院门诊量预测研究

Prediction for outpatient amount of hospital based on GM（1,1）

目的 应用GM（1,1）模型对某市两家医院门诊量进行预测,通过分析比较预测结果,以便及时发现门诊量的变动因素,预测方法与结果将为医院的管理和改善提供更好的决策支持.方法收集两家医院近年来的门诊量数据,运用DPS数据操作平台,运用GM（1,1）灰色模型进行门诊量预测.结果 通过GM（1,1）预测两家医院未来两年门诊量人次总体呈上升趋势,2013和2014年甲、乙医院预测门诊量分别为371 774人次和350 452人次,383 527和391 273人次.2013年乙医院门诊量仅次于甲医院,2014年乙医院门诊量人次大幅上升,超过了甲医院.结论 GM（1,1）预测模型为医院统筹安排门诊工作提供定量的参考数据,进一步为现代医院管理提供科学的决策依据.

Objective GM （ 1, 1 ） model was applied in this article on outpatient amount forecast of two hospitals. Pre- diction of comparative analysis can find variable factors of outpatient amount. Prediction method and results will provide a better for hospital management and improve decision-making support.Methods Data of outpatient amount were collected in two hospi- tals of recent years. By using DPS data operation platform and GM （ 1, 1 ） of grey model, outpatient amount could be predicted. Results By GM （ 1, 1 ） forecast, outpatient amount of two hospitals in next two years was on the rise. In 2013 and 2014, out- patient amount of prediction for the two hospitals was 371 774 and 350 452,383 527 and 391 273 respectively. B hospital＇s out- patient amount was lower than that of A hospital in 2013. And B hospital＇s outpatient amount was higher than that of A hospital in 2014. Conclusion GM （ 1, 1 ） prediction model for hospital can provide quantitative reference for outpatient service work, and can provide scientific decision basis for modem hospital management.