企业出口动态、二元边际与出口增长：来自中国的证据

Firm Export Dynamics,Dual Margins and Export Growth:With Evicences from China

中国出口爆炸式增长已成为全球瞩目的焦点。出口爆炸式的增长是企业参与国际贸易程度不断深化的结果,企业出口动态,即企业在出口市场的进入与退出、产品与目的国的选择三个层面的决策决定了二元边际的规模及其对出口总增长的贡献。本文利用2000-2005年中国海关企业层面数据分析中国企业出口动态,同时从企业、目的国与产品三个层面考察出口增长的二元边际。结果表明,出口市场企业的退出与进入、出口企业对目的国的变动及产品种类的变动相当频繁;在出口增长的二元边际中,扩展边际的波动幅度虽大,然而扩展边际对出口增长的净效应却显得微不足道,集约边际在出口增长的贡献上仍占主导地位。这些结论不仅为分析中国出口增长提供了微观基础,也为中国实现出口的持续稳定发展提供了丰富的政策含义。

The explosive growth of China＇s export has drawn the attention of the entire world economy. Such an exposion in export growth is the result of continuously deepened participation of Chinese enterprises in international trade. Firm export dynamics include three aspects： the entry into and retreat from inter- national markets, the consideration on products, and the choice for destination countries to export to. Firm export dynamics determine the scale of dual margins and their contribution to the total export growth. Using Customs＇ trade data from 2000-2005, this paper analyzes the firm export dynamics of China and stud- ies dual margins in terms of three dimensions including firms themselves, prod- ucts and destination markets.The results show that there are a flurry of fim en- tries into and retreats from the export markets, repetive changes in the choice of destination markets and proliferation of products. Our findings also suggest that though the variance of the extensive margin is large, the net effect of the exten- sive margin on export growth is negligible, and intensive margins still principally contribute to export growth. These findings not only provide a micro basis for an- alyzing China＇s export growth, but also put forward policy implications for China to refer to when striving for sustainable and stable development in export trade.