基于GTAP模拟的碳关税对我国农产品贸易影响的研究

Carbon Tariffs on China’s Agricultural Trade:A Study Based on GTAP Simulation

随着全球旨在减缓温室气体排放的《京都议定书》第二承诺期的到来,碳关税呼之欲出。本文采用GTAP 8.0模拟分析了欧盟、美国、日本分别和同时征收碳关税对中国农产品贸易的影响。结果表明:碳关税将改变世界贸易的利益格局,征税国受益,中国等发展中国家受损;碳关税将使中国农产品产量和出口额小幅增加,进口额下降;碳关税会对中国出口农产品的市场结构产生影响,中国农产品在碳关税征收国的市场份额下降,在非征税国家和地区增加。基于以上研究结论,本文提出了相应的政策建议。

With the forthcoming of the second commitment term of the Kyoto Protocol, carbon tariffs appear to be around the comer. By adopting the GTAP 8.0 model, this paper simulates the impacts on China＇s agricultural trade when the EU, the US and Japan impose carbon tariffs respectively and simultane- ously. The results indicate that： （1） carbon trariffs will change existing structures of world trade, and the levying countries will profit while developing countries like China will suffer; （2） carbon trariffs will put China＇s agricultural production and exports on an increasing trend and agri-imports on a decreasing trend and; （3） carbon trariffs will have impact on the market structure of China＇s agri-ex- ports and China＇s market share in the levying countries will drop whereas that in the non-levying countries and regions will prop up. Policy recommendations are proposed accordingly based on the findings of this research.