中国对外贸易质量剖析

Assessing the Quality of Chinese Foreign Trade

如何科学地评价中国对外贸易质量的状况,是制定有效政策以推进我国对外贸易发展方式转型的前提条件之一。本文利用经济理论判断和统计分析相结合的方法,从世界银行WDI数据库中,选取并构造了1980-2010年反映中国对外贸易状况的6个因变量和9个自变量。通过实证分析,在静态和动态两个维度,描述了改革开放30多年来中国对外贸易质量总体状况的结构变化特征,并提出了相关的政策建议和进一步的研究方向。

How to assess the quality of Chinese international trade is one of the pre-requirements to promote the transformation of Chinese trade pattern.In this paper,we select 6 dependent variables of Chinese Trade Quality and their 9 determinants related variables from World Development Indicators（WDI） of the World Bank based on economic theoretical judgment and statistical analysis.With above selected data,we empirically explore the structural change patterns of Chinese trade quality since 1980 in static and dynamic perspective.We also give some policy suggestions based on our analysis.We discussed further research direction for the future at the end.