季节调整与环比增长率测算最新进展及比较

The Latest Progress and Comparison of Seasonal Adjustment and Chain-based Growth Rate

国家统计局从2011年4月对外公布经季节调整的包括GDP的四项统计指标的环比数据,这标志着季节调整和环比增长率测算在我国统计工作实践中已经起步。本文从季节调整的理论研究和实践两个方面对各种季节调整模型、国内外理论研究和各国统计工作实践的差异进行比较分析,发现国内外在研究基础、理论和应用研究比例、研究模型的广度和基础理论研究等理论研究方面以及季节调整的指标范围、环比增长率测算、数据的公布等实际工作方面均存在较大差异。这对我国进一步完善季节调整模型和软件,不断提高环比统计数据质量,以及逐步建立月、季度统计调查制度具有重要意义。

From April 2011,National Bureau of Statistics announced the seasonally adjusted Chain-based data of four statistical indicators including GDP,This indicates that seasonal adjustment（SA）and Chain-based growth rate is already underway in China＇s statistical work practice.From the seasonal adjustment of theoretical study and practical aspects,the comparison between all kinds of seasonal adjustment model,the domestic and foreign theoretical research and statistical work practice in the world was studied.Found in the domestic and foreign theory research of research base,the proportion of theoretical and applied research,the breadth of the model research and basic theoretical research and in the range of seasonal adjustment indicators,calculation of Chain-based growth rate and data releases practice are quite different.It is important to further improve the seasonal adjustment model and software,continuously improve the quality of the Chain-based statistics data and gradually establish a monthly,quarterly survey system.