基于技术扩散的全社会能源效率空间条件收敛分析

Spatial Conditional Β-convergence Analysis of Society-wide Energy Efficiency Based on Technological Diffusion

我国各地区能源效率存在明显的差距,如何缩小地区能源效率差距成为了能源经济领域的热点问题。本文依据2000-2010年中国30省面板数据,运用空间误差条件β收敛模型分析了技术扩散对全社会能源效率收敛的影响,研究结果表明:①2000-2010年间,全社会能源效率呈现2000-2002、2002-2005和2005-2010的三阶段特征,经历上升、下降、再上升的变化过程,其中,2005-2010年提升速度最快,其经验值得借鉴;②全社会能源效率的绝对β收敛呈现由收敛至发散的三阶段变化过程;③全社会能源效率存在显著的空间滞后现象,其增长率的空间相依性不显著,但空间因素对全社会能源效率β收敛的正面影响有加强的趋势;④技术扩散从总体上使全社会能源效率的收敛速度提高1.8倍以上,且影响程度逐渐增强;⑤外商直接投资有助于提升全社会能源效率及其收敛速度;⑥不同时段的技术扩散对全社会能源效率的影响不同,且技术引进和国内技术市场技术流入对收敛的作用不显著。因此,引进外资是缩小地区间全社会能源效率差距的重要措施。

There is an energy efficiency gap among Chinese different regions. How to reduce the difference is becoming a hot issue in the energy economy. Based on the panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2010, this paper used the spatial error conditional β-convergence model to estimate the effects of technological diffusion on society-wide energy efficiency convergence. The results are as follows ： ①society-wide energy efficiency in China from 2000 to 2010 has three stages ： the upside from 2000 to 2002, the downside from 2002 to 2005 and the upside again from 2005 to 2010. In the third period, the rate of growth is the fastest, so its experience is worth referring; ②society-wide energy efficiency absolute β-convergence can be separated into three phases from convergence to divergence; ③society-wide energy efficiency has spatial dependence and its growth rate is insignificant, but the positive effect of spatial factors on society-wide energy efficiency β-convergence is gathering strength; ④society-wide energy efficiency can be provided over 1.8 times by the overall technological diffusion and grows over time; foreign direct investment had an adverse effect on society-wide energy efficiency and its speed of convergence; ⑤the impact of technology diffusion on society-wide energy efficiency is different in the three periods, and the effect of technology import and inflow to domestic technical market on the convergence of societywide energy efficiency was not significant. Therefore, the introduction of foreign capital is the important measure to reduce the gap in regional society-wide energy efficiency.