上海市低碳发展状况分析

Development Status of Low-carbon in Shanghai

气候变化已经引起了世界的广泛关注,各个国家都意识到在经济发展的同时,需要降低能源消费所带来的CO2排放。很多国家和地区通过采取一系列的措施来应对气候变化问题,实现低碳发展的目标。中国作为一个负责任的发展中国家,一直以来高度重视气候变化问题。上海市作为中国经济发展的领头羊,在"节能减排"方面也处于全国的前列,但是和发达国家的一些国际大都市相比,还存在一定的差距。面对全球低碳经济发展的新潮流,如何处理好能源消费和经济发展二者的关系是值得我们关注和思考的一个问题。本文基于国家发展改革委发布的《省级温室气体清单编制指南》,对2001-2010年间上海市能源消费和CO2排放状况进行了测算,并利用LMDI指数分解法对上海市历年碳排放量差异进行了因素分解。另外,选取2008年上海、伦敦和东京三市的CO2排放状况进行了对比,利用Theil指数分解法对城市间的碳强度差异进行了分析。最后通过设置三种不同的发展情景,计算分析了上海市产业结构和能源结构调整的减排潜力。

Climate change has caught worldwide attention. It is widely realized that the energy consumption and CO2 emissions should be reduced with the growth of economy. Many countries and regions have taken measures to solve climate change problem and develop low-carbon economy. As a responsible developing country, Chinese government pays much attention to the climate change problem. Shanghai is the bellwether of China econonly, their work on energy-saving and emission reduction are impressive in China, but the gap still exists between Shanghai and other international cities. With the new trend of low-carbon development, how to handle the relationship between energy consumption and economy development is the one that deserves attention. Shanghai＇ s energy consumption and CO2 emissions from 2001 to 2010 were calculated in this study using the method of ＇ Guidelines of Provincial Greenhouse Gas List＇. Shanghai＇ s carbon emissions changing trend was analyzed in this paper with the application of LMDI index decomposition method. Shanghai＇ s CO2 emissions, composition and per capita carbon emissions of 2008 were selected to compare with London and Tokyo. Then we used Theft index method to analyze the factors that causing the gap among these three cities＇ carbon emissions intensity. Finally, according to three different scenarios, Shanghai＇ s potential of energy-saving and emissions reduction with the adjustment of industrial structure and energy varieties structure were calculated.