人力资本对中国经济增长的影响——基于扩展Solow模型的研究

Research on the Influence of Human Capital on China Economy Growth Based on Extended Solow Model

人力资本综合存量的度量方法有采用产出法分析,也有用投入法来分析;有从理论上推理,也有从经验数据上论证。分析方法有从教育人力资本角度出发,也有从健康人力资本角度出发。而绝大多数文献很少将教育和健康因素同时纳入考虑,仅分析其中一个方面无疑会带来测量的误差。若能同时考虑教育和健康,由新的度量方法产生新数据,由此带来新结论或是能对已有结论作进一步地论证,则是对以往文献研究的一个补充。因此,本文从四个维度建立新型人力资本综合测量体系,通过因子分析法对人力资本的综合水平进行了衡量。其中四个维度主要是指教育、劳动力再培训、身心健康和劳动力合理流动。在此基础上,把人力资本综合存量这一指标引入Solow模型中,构建扩展的Solow模型。利用扩展Solow模型,并结合最新人口统计数据进行实证分析,建立扩展的中国经济增长模型。研究发现人力资本和技术进步正逐渐成为我国经济增长的主要影响因素,劳动力数量对经济增长的影响在逐渐减弱。在我国经济发展的新阶段,如何在控制人口数量和提高经济发展水平方面协调各项工作成为当前的热点问题。为此我们针对教育投入,全民人口素质,中高端人才培养,经济增长方式创新等方面提出一些建议。

There are two methods to measure the comprehensive stock of human capital： one is using output analysis, and the other is adopting input analysis. Some scholars ean use theoretical reasoning to analyze the comprehensive stock of human capital, and also argue from empirical data. The analysis method of human capital is not only from education, but also from the perspective of healthy human capital. And a overwhehning majority of the literatures rarely take education and health factors into account ; they only analyze one. This will undoubtedly bring measurement error. If we can take both education and health into account, and generate new data by the new measure, there will have a further proof about the existing conclusions and can give us the new conclusions. This is also a supplement to the previous literatures. Therefore, in this paper we firstly use a new measurement system of human capital to measure the level of human capital by factor analysis. This measurement system contains four factors including education, labor, physical and mental health and the rational flow of labor. On this basis, we introduce human capital stock indicators into the Solow model, and build the extension of the Solow model. Then the empirical analysis is done with the extended Solow model, and combined with the latest demographic data. With the analysis, we establish the expansion of China＇ s economic growth model. From the economic growth model, we find that human capital and technological progress is becoming main factors influencing Chinese economy growth, while the amount of labor becomes more inclined to play an insignificant role in this process. In the new stage of China＇ s economic development, how to control our population and improve the economic development has become a hot issue in the current society. At last, we offer some suggestions about education investment, universal quality of the population, the high-end talent cultivation, and the mode of economic growth and innovation.