典型风电场风电功率预测误差研究

Study on Output Power Characteristics and Prediction Error of a Typical Wind Farm

比较了风电场并网功率的预测值与实际值,研究了风电场并网功率日预测误差概率及最大日预测误差、风电场并网功率实时预测误差概率分布、风电场预测数据的均方根误差和风电场风功率预测误差的分布特性,并提出了利用储能系统减小风功率预测误差,提高风电功率预测精度。

This paper, first of all, gives a brief introduction to the wind power prediction development at home and abroad. Second, the paper compares the predicted value and the actual value of the power output of a typical wind farm integrated with the power grid, and studies the daily wind power prediction error probability and the maximum daily prediction error, the real-time prediction error probability distribution, the root mean square error of the predicted wind farm data as well as distribution characteristics of prediction errors. Finally the paper proposes that the energy storage system can be used to reduce wind power prediction errors and improve the forecast accuracy.