20个CMIP5模式对中亚地区年平均气温模拟能力评估

Simulation Capabilities of 20 CMIP5 Models for Annual Mean Air Temperatures in Central Asia

利用CMIP5中20个模式的历史模拟结果和英国东英格利亚大学CRU观测数据,采用泰勒图、趋势分析、滑动平均和EOF等方法从气候态和气候变率两方面检验各个模式对中亚年平均气温的模拟能力。结果表明:各模式能较好地模拟1951—2005年中亚地区显著增温趋势和年平均气温的空间分布特点,尤其是高、低值中心和等值线数值分布。泰勒图分析显示,大部分模式的均方根误差在0.5左右,空间相关系数在0.85～0.90之间,标准差在0.5～1.0之间。EOF分析结果表明,模式集合平均能够较好地表现出中亚气温一致升高以及南北反位相波动这两个主要模态的时空变化特征。

Based on the CRU （Climatic Research Unit） dataset and the output of the historical simulations from 20 CMIP5 models, their simulation capabilities for the climatology and climate variability of the annual mean surface air temperatures in Central Asia have been examined by using Taylor diagram, the trend analysis, and EOF methods. The results show that the 20 CMIP5 models well simulated the significant rise trend, temporal evolution and spatial distribution of the annual mean temperature over Central Asia during 1951 2005, especially the high and low value centers and contour value distributions. The Taylor diagram shows that the root mean square errors are about 0.5 for most models, the spatial correlation coefficients range from 0.85 to 0.90 and the standard deviations range from 0.5 to 1.0. The EOF analysis results show that the 20-model ensemble can better simulate the features of the spatially consistent rise in annual mean temperature and the significant north and south reverse phase fluctuations over Central Asia.