全球和中国区域近50年气候变化检测归因研究进展

Recent Progress in Studies of Climate Change Detection and Attribution in the Globe and China in the Past 50 Years

回顾了近年来国内外对全球和中国区域气候变化的检测归因研究,主要集中在对20世纪中期以来温度、降水和主要极端事件变化的检测归因研究进展,而不涉及更长时间尺度历史气候变化的检测归因。分析表明,国际上近年来在气候变化检测归因研究领域发展迅速,从全球尺度气温变化的检测归因发展到区域尺度和多变量的检测归因。但在中国,虽然也有一些研究探讨了中国东部南涝北旱等发生的原因,但在以数理统计推断方法为基础的气候变化事实归因领域的研究仍然亟待加强。一些重要的问题,如中国不同区域的变暖、不同区域的变干或变湿的归因分析,以及这些因子和引起全球气候变化因子的异同等,都是迫切需要回答的科学问题。

We reviewed recent studies about detection and attribution of climate change in the globe and China, with lbcus on the detection and attribution of temperature, precipitation and major extreme events changes since 1950s. The detection and attribution of historical climate change at a longer time scale are not considered in the paper. The investigation shows that there are very quick advance in the international field of detection and attribution. Many studies cover the field from the detection and attribution of temperature at global scale to regional scale, and from temperature to multi-variables. However, in China, the relevant study is still at an initial stage. Although some studies explore the physical reasons behind the dry North China and wet South China since 1970s, the detection and attribution studies based on statistical inference methods are still very little and need to be strengthened. Many important issues, such as the reasons for regional climate change, the contribution from various factors and their difference with those at global scale, are needed to answer.