树轮记录的川西金川1713-2010年6月平均气温变化

Variations of June Air Temperature Derived from Tree-Ring Records in 1713-2010 in Jinchuan,West Sichuan Plateau,China

利用采自川西高原金川情人海沟的云杉树轮样本,分析了树轮宽度与气候要素的关系。结果表明:树轮宽度指数与金川气象站6月平均气温具有显著的正相关关系。利用标准化树轮宽度指数重建了该区域1713—2010年6月平均气温序列,交叉检验及各项检验的参数表明重建方程是稳定可靠的。近298年来川西金川6月平均气温为18.2℃,经历了3个暖期和4个冷期。暖期时段为1825—1839、1854—1892和1951—1961年;冷期时段为1792—1804、1842—1853、1864—1893和1911—1924年。周期分析结果表明,重建序列存在2～3、7～8、20～30、32～64和70～130a的变化周期。

Tree-ring width ofPicea schrenkiana sampled at Jinchuan and its response to climate change were analyzed. Correlation analysis indicates that the tree-ring chronology and the June mean air temperature at Jinchuan station in the West Sichuan Plateau was significantly correlated. The June mean air temperature series of 1713-2010 at Jinchuan was well reconstructed. Its reliability was substantiated by the leave-one-out method. According to the reconstructed temperature series, the June mean air temperature over the period was 18.2 ℃. The reconstructed series contained three warm periods： 1825-1839, 1854-1892 and 1951-1961, as well as four cold periods： 1792-1804, 1842- 1853, 1864-1893 and 1911-1924. Power spectrum analysis and wavelet analysis show that the series had variation periods of 2-3, 7-8, 20-30, 32-64 and 70-130 years.