福建省宏观经济增长与保险业发展相关性研究

Correlation Between Macroeconomic Growth and Development of Insurance Industry in Fujian Province

福建作为沿海省份近年来经济呈现良好的发展势头。随着宏观经济的快速发展,福建省保险业也日益壮大,成为福建经济中重要的一部分。本文基于VAR模型,借助脉冲响应函数、方差分解方法,结合格兰杰因果关系检验,研究福建省宏观经济增长与保险业发展的相关性。实证研究表明,福建省宏观经济增长无法显著促进保险业的发展,但保险业发展在一定程度上能促进宏观经济增长。通过分析提出以下对策:在宏观经济方面,福建省应转变经济发展方式,提高GDP增长的质量,使GDP增长真正促进人们可支配收入的提高,带动保险业务量的上升;在保险业方面,不断健全保险体系,促进保险业多样化发展,提高保险业控制、抵抗风险的能力,使保险业增加值在GDP中的比重不断加大,从而增强保险业发展对经济增长的作用,最终形成保险业发展与经济增长之间的良性循环。

As a coastal province, Fujian＇ s economy has been developing well in recent years. With the rapid develop- ment of macroeconomy, the insurance industry has been growing quickly and has become an important part of economy in Fujian Province. The article studied the correlation between macroeconomic growth and the development of insurance industry in Fujian Province based on VAR model, impulse response function, variance decomposition method and Granger causality test. The empirical study showed that macroeconomic growth had no significant impact on the development of insurance industry while the development of insurance industry could promote macroeconomic growth to some extent in Fujian Province. It put forward the following suggestions. As macroeconomy was concerned, it＇ s important to transform economic development mode, improve the quality of GDP, and make the expansion of GDP really increase people＇ s income to enhance insurance service. It＇ s necessary to improve insurance system, ability to control and resist risks, and the rate of added value of insurance industry in GDP and strengthen the impacts of insurance industry on economic growth to achieve the sound development between insurance industry and economic growth.