气候变化背景下湖北省稻谷产量影响因素研究——基于湖北省78个县市面板数据的分析

Factors Influencing Rice Yield in Hubei Province under Climate Changes——Based on Analysis of Panel Data from 78 Counties in Hubei Province

根据1990-2009年湖北省78个县市与稻谷相关的生产数据和气候数据,运用经济-气候模型分析了包括气候因子在内的各个因素对湖北省稻谷产量的影响。研究结果表明:影响稻谷生产的主要气候因子为气温和降水,平均气温与降水变化对湖北省稻谷产量均有着显著负向的影响,平均日照的影响并不显著;其他投入要素对稻谷产量具有正向影响,影响大小依次为播种面积、化肥施用量、农业劳动力、有效灌溉面积、机械总动力,技术进步也具有显著正向的作用。提出了调整作物种植结构、增强农业基础设施、采用金融创新产品等路径以提高适应气候变化能力的政策建议。

Based on rice production data and climate data from 78 counties in Hubei Province from 1990 to 2009,this paper uses economic-climate model （C-D-C Model） to analyze the factors such as cli- mate factor influencing rice production in Hubei Province. The result shows that the major climatic fac- tors affecting rice production are temperature and precipitation, changes of average temperature and pre- cipitation both have a significantly negative impact on rice production in Hubei Province, while average sunshine did not have significant influence. Other input factors have a positive impact on rice production, from the highest to the lowest, sown area, the amount of chemical fertilizer, agricultural labor, effective irrigation area, total mechanical power and technological advances also have a significant positive impact. Therefore,this paper proposes several policy recommendations on how to improve the adaptation to cli- mate changes,such as adjusting the crop structure, strengthening the agricultural infrastructure and a- dopting financial innovation products.