“新农保”中农民缴费能力评估与影响因素分析——基于湖北省试点地区的调研数据

Assessment on Peasants' Payment Ability and Analysis on the Influencing Factors in China's New Rural Pension System

新型农村社会养老保险试点已经在全国范围内推开,制度规定地方政府可在中央政府给出的指导缴费标准基础上制定具体的缴费标准,参保农民可自由选择缴费档次,评估其缴费能力关系到新农保的实际政策效果。本文选取农民个人最大缴费能力、农民个人最低缴费率和农民个人最高缴费率三个指标来评估全国及湖北省试点地区农民的缴费能力是否能够承受设定的缴费档次,进而通过运用OLS回归分析得出湖北省试点地区农民的缴费能力受到年龄、家庭支出状况和自身经济状况等因素的影响。

China＇s New Rural Pension System has spreaded in pilot areas. It stipulates that local governments can set concrete pay cost standard based on the central government＇s guidance. At the same time, insured peasants can make free choice on the pay level. Assessment on peasants＇ payment ability makes a big difference on the actual policy effect. This paper chooses three indexes, which are the maximum pay ability, the minimum pay ability and the highest personal payment rate, to assess whether the peasants can afford the rates for individual contributions. And based on the OLS model, the study comes to a conclusion that age, family expenditure and personal economic situation influence the peasants＇ pay ability in Hubei Province.