2012年9月7日彝良5.7、5.6级地震预测及科学依据

Earthquake Prediction of Yiliang M5.7、5.6 Earthquakes on Sept.7 in 2012 and its Scientific Basis

通过分析彝良地震前地震预测意见和预测依据,认为:彝良地震前云南最主要的地震活动特征是境内6级以上地震平静时间接近或超过20世纪以来的极限时间,中等地震丛集过程中,缺少6级地震活动;宁蒗地震的窗口意义和前兆异常数量持续增加是判断地震短期危险性的主要依据;4级地震密集活动区为地点判断提供线索。彝良地震与缅甸地震同时孕育的复杂性,增加了地震预测的难度,也丰富了我们对地震孕育过程的认识。

Basing on the prediction opinion and criteria of Yiliang M5.7, 5.6 earthquakes, we considered that the main earthquake activity characterstic before Yiliang M5.7, 5.6 earthquakes was the earthquake quietude time of M≥6.0 earthquakes approached to or exceeded its utmost time since 20th centry, and there is lack of M≥6. 0 earthquakes in the period of continuous occurrence of moderate strong earthquakes activity in Yunnan province. The main basis of the short-term earthquake risk were the window effect of Ninglang earthquake and the continuous increase of precursor abnormity items. The concentrating activity area of M ≥ 4.0 earthquakes provided the clue of earthquake occurrence location judgment. Because of the preparation of Yiliang MS. 7, 5.6 and Burma Ms7.0 earthquakes in the same period, which increased the prediction difficulty of Yiliang M5.7, 5.6 earthquakes, however it also enriched our understanding of earthquake gestation.