湖北省高职教育招生规模的中期预测研究——基于灰色关联分析与BP神经网络

The Research of Medium Range Forecast of Vocational Education Enrollment Scale in Hubei Province——Based on Gray Relation Analysis and BP Neural Network-Model

高职教育招生规模中期预测,是制订高职教育发展规划的重要参考依据。如何准确地预测未来的发展趋势,是高职教育研究领域的重要课题。在灰色关联分析基础上,建立BP神经网络模型,对湖北省2015—2025年高职教育招生规模进行预测,并预测未来高职生源的基本构成:普通高中毕业生约占35%;职业高中毕业生约占25%;普通中专毕业生约占21%;成人中专毕业生约占高职生源19%。

The medium range forecast of vocational education enrollment is the important inference to formulate the development plan of vocational education. How to accurately forecast the future development trends is an important subject in vocational education research area. Based on gray relation analysis, the paper builds a BP Neural Networks-Model, and predicts the scale of vocational education enrollment from 2015 to 2025 in Hubei province. And the paper forecasts the basic composition of future vocational college students＇ sources： 35% vocational students from middle school, 25% from vocational high school, 21% from general technical secondary school, and 19% from adult technical secondary school.