菲律宾M_S≥7级地震活动规律及未来趋势

The Active Pattern and Futuer Trand of Earthquakes with M_S≥7 in Philippines in recent 50 years

通过可公度信息提取方法、蝴蝶结构图、震中时空迁移特征分析近50年菲律宾MS≥7级中、浅源地震,发现2013、2014年MS≥7级地震信号强,2014年最强;22年地震主周期明显,其中可划出活跃期与平静期;2012年为菲律宾新地震周期及活跃期的开始;菲律宾MS≥7级地震震中时空交替迁移规律明显,未来震中向西北部迁移。菲律宾MS≥7级地震与太阳黑子活动22年双周期关系密切,多发生在太阳黑子活动偶数周期极大年附近及其下降段。目前,太阳黑子活动处于第24周期极大年附近,2013～2014年MS≥7级地震发生的可能性很大,与可公度分析结果一致。

Based on the study of earthquakes with Ms≥7 in Philippines in recent 50 years by using the method of commensurability, butterfly diagram and space-time migration of epicenter, we find that there is a strong signal that earthquakes with Ms≥7 will occur between 2013 and 2014, specifically in 2014. We also find that there is a 22a primary period of earthquake, which can be divided into the active period and quiet period, meanwhile, a new earthquake period and an active period begins in 2012. Temporal and spatial migration law of epicenter of earthquakes with Ms≥7 in Philippines is obvious, and will move toward northwest in future. Earthquake with Ms≥7 in Philippines is closed related to sunspot activity, it often occures in solarmax and descent stage when sunspot activity is even period, Now sunspot activity may be a solarmax in the 24 period, the occurrence probability of earthquake with Ms ≥7 is high between 2013 and 2014. This is basically consistent with the result of commensurability.