人力资本与产业结构转化对经济增长的效应分析——来自中国省级面板数据的经验证据

Effect of Human Capital and Industrial Structure Transformation on Economic Growth

根据两部门经济增长模型，以1995-2009年中国省级数据为对象，运用分位数回归的方法考察人力资本、产业结构对中国经济增长的影响。理论分析和实证研究均表明：人力资本对经济增长有显著的促进作用，且在条件分布的不同位置，这种作用存在明显差异；产业结构从传统产业向现代产业的转化也是经济增长的重要推动力；人力资本的经济增长效应受产业结构的影响，与人力资本相适应的产业结构转化可以优化人力资本的配置，提高人力资本的产出效率，有助于经济持续、快速地增长。

On the basis of two sectors economic growth model, this paper uses quantile regression to study the impact of human capital and industrial structure on economic growth in provinces of China, from 1995 to 2009. Results of theoretical a- nalysis and empirical studies show that human capital has significantly positive effect on economic growth in China, the effect shows difference at different conditional distribution; transformation of industrial structure from traditional industry to modern industry is an important driving force of economic growth as well; industrial structure influences the effect that human capital has on economic growth, since the transformation of industrial structure which is in conformity with human capital can optimize the allocation of human capital and improve the human capital productivity to help the economy continuously and rapidly grow.