气候变化和人类活动对水文循环影响研究进展

Review for impacts of climate change and human activities on water cycle

气候变化和人类活动是影响流域水文循环过程和水资源演变规律的两大驱动因素,所引起的水文效应已成为当前全球变化研究领域的焦点问题。水循环系统是气候系统的重要组成部分,气候变化对水循环要素的影响必然导致流域水资源的时空变化。同时,人类活动对流域水循环的影响也日益显著,主要表现为土地利用/覆被变化、修建大型水利工程等引起的流域下垫面条件变化,进而影响流域内的产汇流机制。针对气候变化和人类活动对流域水循环要素的影响机制,从水文要素时空变化检测与归因的角度对主要研究结果进行回顾,探讨了变化环境下水循环要素变化的检测与归因分析研究方法,并总结了定量区分气候变化和人类活动对水循环过程影响研究中的主要问题和不足,提出了未来需要重点加强气候变化和人类活动对水循环要素变异的驱动机理及贡献分解研究、加强水循环要素时空变异特征的诊断以及模型评价技术和不确定性量化研究等。

The impacts of Climate change and human activities are two topics in the current evolution law research of hydrology and water resources. A lot of achievements have been found in the research of re sponses of water resources to climate change and human activities in recent years. The water circular sys tem is an important part of the climate system, and climate change will result in temporal and spatial change in water resources. Meanwhile, human activities are another important driver in watershed hydrologic cycle system. Land use/cover changes and construction of large hydraulic engineering will affect mechanism of runoff yield and flow concentration through changing underlying surface. It is of importance to quantify the influence of climate change and human activities for the cognition of evolution law and sustainable de velopment of water resources. In the paper, three aspects of the research have been concluded as follow ing： the research progress of the hydrologic impacts caused by the two major driving factors respectively has been summarized; the methods of detection and attribution analysis for variation of water cycle ele ments in a changing environment have been introduced; and then based on the current research contents, the problems or shortage of quantitatively decomposing the influences of climate change and human activi ties on hydrologic cycle were discussed. Finally, the future research to be further studied in the field of cli mate change and human activities impacting on hydrology and water resources were addressed.