基于太平洋海温的冬小麦春季湿渍害预测模型

Prediction model of wet damages to winter wheat in spring based on sea surface temperature

为了进一步开展冬小麦春季湿渍害的预测预报业务工作,利用江苏省1969-2008年60个气象站常规观测资料和冬小麦产量资料,根据场相关分析原理,将江苏省春季湿渍害3个风险区的湿渍害指数与太平洋海温资料进行相关普查,结果表明:3个风险区的小麦春季湿渍害指数和西太平洋海温均存在高相关区,主要位于Nino区和西太平洋北部海区,其相关程度随时间具有一定的变化趋势;挑选出与湿渍害指数相关的强信号海区作为预报因子,通过最优化相关处理提高预报因子相关性;经稳定性和独立性检验,创建了对应3个风险区的冬小麦湿渍害指数预测模型,所有模型均通过0.01显著性水平检验,拟合及试报结果理想,表明预测模型具有一定应用价值。

To further develop the prediction work of the winter wheat wet damages in spring, a field correlation analysis was made on the relationships between the SST and the wet damage index in high, middle, and low risk areas with the winter wheat yield data and ordinary meteorological observations from 60 stations in Jiangsu province during 1969-2008. The results showed that the wet damage indices of winter wheat in the three areas were highly correlated with the SST in Nino area and northwest area of Pacific and the correlation degree changed with time. Then the regions of the sea with strong signals related to the wet damage index were selected as prediction factors and the optimization correlation technique was used to enhance the correlation between these factors. By testing the stability and independence, the wet damage indices prediction models of winter wheat in the three areas were established and all models have passed the statistical significant testing with 0.01 level. The perfect simulation results showed the models had application value.