印度国大党:支持者、意识形态与组织建设

Indian National Congress:Voters,Ideologies and Organizations

印度国大党于2004年重新上台并即将完成两届任期,这被一些观察家认为是其实力恢复的表现。通过对2004年、2009年大选中国大党的选民支持模式、地方势力范围和意识形态及组织建设的考察与分析,可以发现印度国大党的发展主要获益于简单多数选举制下地方政党竞争的分散。由于无法应对地方上以特定集团为基础的反对党的竞争,国大党在几个重要邦仍将处于边缘位置,这将影响其在联邦政党政治中的地位;国大党以保留政策为核心的针对穆斯林的肯定性行动,使其世俗主义路线无法与反对党达成共识;国大党的组织建设也未能走出家族政治、内部派系斗争和组织涣散的局面。这些都决定了印度国大党要想恢复其传统的独大型政党地位仍然非常困难。

The two terms of United Progressive Alliance under the leadership of Indian National Congress from 2004 was viewed as the recovery of the party.Through analyzing the voters,territories,ideologies and organizations of INC,this article shows that the INC has benefited from the decentralization of state parties under the first-past-the-post voting system.Because of the strong oppositions based on particular groups,the INC will be marginal player in some critical states in the future,which will affect its role in the federal politics.The affirmative action focused on the reservation policies to Muslim means that the INC cannot reach a consensus with the main opposition.The family politics and inner factions appear to be the norm of organization building.All these signal that the INC will not rebuild its dominant position in the near future.