“后查韦斯时代”委内瑞拉能源市场的机遇与挑战

Post-Chavez challenges and opportunities in Venezuela's energy industry

查韦斯逝世,增加了未来委内瑞拉石油工业发展的不确定性。查韦斯政府的石油工业国有化、石油收入补贴民生、廉价石油拉拢政治盟友等做法难以持续,将面临一系列改革,以重振衰退的石油工业。马杜罗上台后,短期内将延续查韦斯的执政理念,长期则趋向放松政府对石油工业的管控,实现一定程度的市场化运作。若未来反对派联盟领袖卡普里莱斯竞选成功,则会加速石油市场化改革。委内瑞拉的局势牵动世界油气市场,影响中国石油企业的国际化经营:1)政局不明加剧投资不确定性,中国企业应做好风险防范;2)警惕委货币贬值引发资产缩水、成本上升;3)关注委美关系可能升温的影响,巩固中委战略合作;4)警惕委内瑞拉石油政策变化对国际油价及北美重油业务格局的影响。建议中国企业把握机遇,对症下药,即重视重油业务,发展炼化设施,采用上下游一体化的一揽子工程。

Hugo Chavez's death has increased uncertainties in Venezuela's oil industry. Through nationalization and heavy taxation of the oil industry, the Chavez Administration transferred the revenue from oil exports to poverty reduction programs and other social spending. However, this policy is not sustainable. Chavez's successor, Nicolas Maduro, will have to implement changes to re-energize the declining oil industry. Maduro will continue with Chavez's policy in the short-run. In the long term, control over the oil industry is expected to be less strict. Had Capriles won, the industry would have been more likely to become market-based. The oil industry will be highly affected by policy change, and Chinese companies operating internationally need to be prepared to: 1) enhance risk management to cope with political uncertainties, 2) see further Bolivar devaluation, 3) in the context of possible improvement in the relationship between Venezuela and the United States, solidify China-Venezuela strategic cooperation, 4) face the impact of changes in Venezuela's oil policy on the global crude market and heavy oil business in North America. Chinese companies need to seize specific opportunities to improve their business in Venezuela, for instance by paying attention to heavy oil, building up refining capacity and applying a vertically integrated engineering package.