美国“能源独立”的另一面

Two sides of U.S. "energy independence"

美国能源在相当长时间内很难自给自足,增产虽然是一个总的趋势,但推动增产的因素还具有不确定性。提高能源自给率并不等于能源安全,自给率的提高和能源进口的减少,将影响美国的海外战略。"能源独立"对石油价格的影响有限,但北美板块的崛起,从长期来看,将改变全球供求关系,最终带来石油价格的下降。美国"能源独立"的影响具有两面性。"能源独立"推动的能源增产和自给率提高的趋势还会继续增长,而这种趋势对美国经济增长、产业发展乃至能源安全的影响是积极的,但是一旦"能源独立"趋势的作用和影响被夸大,可能推高美国的孤立主义。需要辩证地看待美国"能源独立"的两面性,以便更好地理解美国的能源政策和预测美国能源格局的发展趋势。

U.S. energy self-sufficiency will be hard to achieve for quite a long time: despite an increasing trend in production, several factors behind the trend are quite uncertain. Improvement in the rate of energy self-sufficiency is not equal to energy security. Increase in the rate of self-sufficiency and decrease in energy imports will still affect U.S. strategy abroad. Although 'energy independence' has limited impact on oil prices, the rise in North American oil production will change the supply-demand relationship in the long term and ultimately bring down oil prices. There are two effects of US 'energy independence'. One of them will be continued promotion of energy production and the rate of self-sufficiency and have a positive impact on US economic growth, industrial development and energy security. However, exaggeration of the role and impact of 'energy independence' could push the U.S. into isolationism. Therefore we need to understand the interplay of these two results of American 'energy independence' in order to better understand U.S. energy policy and forecast trends in the American energy landscape.