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我国天然气出厂价中期预测及新定价机制调整思路

The wellhead price of natural gas in China: medium-term forecast and pricing mechanism adjustment
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摘要 2011年底,国家发改委试点以市场净回值方法决定天然气出厂价,并选取上海为市场中心,以进口LPG和进口燃料油价格确定天然气门站价或者油气田出厂价。由于未来油价可能持续走高,预测的天然气门站价或者出厂价将随之大幅上涨,在全国推行该定价机制将对宏观经济层面带来很大影响,用户也难以承受。因此,建议在定价公式中考虑引入煤炭价格,一方面可以使天然气门站价和出厂价上升幅度趋缓,有利于"新定价机制"在全国实施,另一方面增加价格调整的严肃性,降低交易成本,更有利于天然气消费市场的扩大。 At the end of 2011 the National Development and Reform Commission of the People's Republic of China (NDRC) adopted a pilot scheme for determining the wellhead price of natural gas on the basis of the netback market value, with Shanghai as the benchmark, and the city-gate price or wellhead price of natural gas was established on the basis of the prices of imported LPG and exported fuel oil. As oil prices may continue to rise in the future, the city-gate price or wellhead price of natural gas is expected also to rise sharply. Therefore, their implementation throughout China will have a huge impact on the macro economy and be hard for users to accept. Therefore, the introduction of coal prices into the pricing formula will on the one hand slow down the rise in city-gate price or wellhead price of natural gas and on the other hand increase the acceptability of the price adjustment, thus reducing transaction costs and helping expand the natural gas consumption market.
作者 邓森林
出处 《国际石油经济》 2013年第6期16-20,110,共5页 International Petroleum Economics
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  • 1国家发展和改革委员会.国家发展改革委关于在广东省、广西自治区开展天然气价格形成机制改革试点的通知(发改价格[201113033号)[S/OL].http://www.sdpc.gov.cn/zcfb/zcfbtz/2011tz/t20111227_452929.htm.
  • 2中国石油集团经济技术研究院.2012年国内外油气行业发展报告[R].2013-01.

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