新形势下中俄油气合作特点及思路

Sino-Russian oil & gas cooperation in a new environment

中俄油气合作呈现"纵横交错、双管齐下"的特点:在石油合作方面,纵向上通过石油贸易、合资项目等形式向上中下游立体延伸,横向上由东西两个方向支撑;在天然气合作方面,主要围绕东西两条管道展开。价格分歧是导致双方天然气谈判多年未果的主要障碍。随着外部形势的变化和双方的努力,中俄能源合作近期呈现加快推进的趋势,但仍需要克服认知错误、提高战略互信、改善投资环境与基础设施以及完善合作效率与谈判策略。针对俄方的经济民族主义思维与拖延战术,建议中方以"麻雀战术"与"蘑菇战术"与之周旋,不宜盲目通过燃气价格改革提升国内燃气销售价格;同时,通过持续创新油气合作模式,努力共建新型大国能源关系。

China is the fourth largest importer of Russia's oil. Sino-Russian oil and gas cooperation has a criss-crossed, two-pronged character which means longitudinal oil cooperation through oil trade and joint ventures, laterally supported from the east and west directions; natural gas cooperation includes building two pipelines. Gas price discrimination by the two sides has been the main obstacle to successful gas negotiations. With the external situation changing and efforts on both sides, Sino-Russian energy cooperation has made great progress, but still needs to overcome misperception and improve strategic mutual trust, the investment environment, infrastructure, efficiency in cooperation, and negotiating strategy. To deal with Russia's economic nationalism and delaying tactics, China needs to deploy 'sparrow' tactics and 'wear and tear' tactics, and should not blindly raise the domestic gas price and reform the pricing mechanism. Meanwhile, both sides should keep innovating to make the oil and gas cooperation model a framework for building new great power energy relations.