实际利率、实际工资与经济结构调整

Research on Real Interest Rate,Real Wage and Economic Structure Improvement

在Long&Plosser(1983)的基础上,本文通过构建、校准和模拟一个简单的动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE),就实际利率、实际工资变化对宏观经济及经济结构的影响进行了深入分析。结果表明:实际利率上升将提高消费占GDP的比重,改善宏观经济结构,促进经济的平稳发展;在劳动力市场存在价格粘性的情况下,实际利率上升不会降低产出水平,并有利于经济结构的改善。与传统观念不同的是,单纯提高实际工资虽能提高经济增长水平,但并不会改变消费投资的经济结构。因此,我们应充分利用当前的有利时机,推进利率市场化改革进程,实现中国经济的长远健康发展。

Based on Long and Plosser （1983）, we construct, calibrate and simulate a simple DSGE model, analysing the relationship between and among real interest rate, real wage and macro economy. The results show that higher real interest rate will increase the ratio of consumption to GDP, improve the macro economic structure, and enhance a better healthy economic development; under labour market with price stickiness, increasing real interest rate will not decrease economic growth but lead to better economic structure; However, contradictory to traditional view, higher real wage will increase the economic level with little effects on the economic structure. So, we must take rapid actions to liberalize the interest rate in China, and improve the economic growth.