美国量化宽松政策是否影响了中国的通货膨胀?——基于SVAR模型的实证研究

Does American QE Monetary Policy Affect China’s Inflation?——An Empirical Analysis based on SVAR Model

本文通过构建SVAR模型对美联储量化宽松货币政策、国际大宗商品价格、人民币汇率与我国通货膨胀之间的动态关系进行了实证检验。结果表明:量化宽松政策的实施推动了国际大宗商品价格的上涨,而国际大宗商品价格的上涨助长了国内通胀,模型表明国际大宗商品价格上涨对PPI的影响要大于对CPI的影响;同时,该政策推动了人民币的升值,而人民币升值对国内的通胀造成了先正后负的冲击。文章的实证研究支持以下结论:通过国际大宗商品价格和汇率渠道,美国的量化宽松货币政策对我国的通胀水平构成了显著的冲击。

This paper studies the dynamic relations among Fed QE policy, international commodity prices, RMB exchange rate and China＇s inflation by constructing the SVAR model. The result indicates that the QE policy promotes the price of the international commodity, and the rising of the international commodity prices promotes the domestic inflation. Furthermore, the impact of international commodity prices on PPI is greater than the impact on CPI. Meanwhile, the policy promotes the appreciation of RMB, and RMB appreciation exerts first positive and then negative impact on the domestic inflation. The empirical analysis supports the following conclusions： through the channels of international commodity prices and exchange rate, the QE policy has significant impact on the level of inflation in China.