广东省传染病自动预警系统运行现状分析

Current situation on the China Infectious Disease Automated-alert and Response System in Guangdong province, China

目的分析广东省传染病自动预警系统（CIDARS）运行现状。方法分析CIDARS三种预警方法的预警信号数与响应时间，并比较调整前后的预警信号阳性率、错误预警率。结果2008年4月21日至2012年12月31日，广东省共发出114585条预警信号，平均响应时间为1．35h。其中固定阈值法发出12394条预警信号，阳性率为7．96％；移动百分位数法发出85727条预警信号，阳性率为0．85％；累积和控制图法发出16464条预警信号，阳性率为1．82％。报告病例数与预警信号数呈正相关（r=0．924，P〈0．01）。2010年中国疾病预防控制中心对CIDARS调整后，广东省预警信号阳性率从1．48％升至2．14％，甲型肝炎、细菌性和阿米巴性痢疾、伤寒和副伤寒等8种传染病的错误预警率下降。结论CIDARS预警信号响应及时，运行状况良好；CIDARS调整后预警效能提高，但一些功能和参数仍需调整和完善。

Objective To analyze the current situation on China Infectious Disease Automated-alert and Response System （CIDARS）in Guangdong province, China. Methods Early- warning signals and response time were analyzed by using three approaches of CIDARS. Positive rates of early-warning signals and error early-warning rates prior and after the adjustment, were compared. Results Totally, 114 585 early-warning signals appeared, with an average response time of 1.35 hours from April 21,2008 to December 31,2012. There were 12 394 early-warning signals in terms of fixed threshold method with a positive rate of 7.96%. 85 727 early-warning signals appeared under the mobile percentile method with a positive rate of 0.85%. There were 16 464 early-warning signals by using accumulation and control chart methods, with a positive rate of 1.82%. Results showed there was a positive correlation between the number of reported cases and the number of early-warning signals （r= 0.924, P〈 0.01 ）. The overall positive rate in Guangdong province increased from 1.48% to 2.14%, after the adjustment done by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention in 2010. The error early-warning rates regarding eight infectious diseases including hepatitis A, bacillary or amebic dysentery, both typhoid and paratyphoid fevers had reduced. Conclusion The early-warning signal response appeared timely in CIDARS with good operation. However, despite the improvement on the efficacy of CIDARS, some functions and parameters of the systems still need to be adjusted.