中国城镇化趋势预测研究

Prediction Study on the Urbanization Trends of China

2011年,中国城镇化率已越过50%的转折点。国际经验表明,城镇化率50%-70%的区间是城镇化减速时期,因此未来中国城镇化将由加速向减速转变,这种转变将对中国城镇化趋势、城镇发展和城镇体系结构产生重要影响。本文回顾了城镇化速度相关研究成果,简要描述了中国城镇化历史,运用多种方法预测城镇化率。研究结果表明,2011-2050年中国城镇化增速趋缓,按三种预测方法平均计算,年均提高0.793个百分点,2020、2030、2040和2050年城镇化率分别为60.34%、68.38%、75.37%和81.63%。

China's urbanization rate exceeded the turning point 50% in 2011.International experience shows that the urbanization rate of 50%-70% interval is the urbanization deceleration period,so the future of Chinese urbanization will be turned from acceleration to deceleration.This change will have an important impact on the Chinese urbanization trend,urban development and urban system structure.This paper reviews the urbanization rate of relevant research results,gives a brief description of the history of Chinese urbanization and predicts the urbanization rate by using a variety of methods.The results show that from 2011 to 2050 China's urbanization growth will slow down.If calculated according to three kinds of forecasting methods,an average growth rate will be 0.793 percentage points in 2020.By 2030,2040 and 2050,the urbanization rate will be 60.34%,68.38%,75.37% and 81.63% respectively.