粮食生产价格的决定因素:市场粮价还是种粮成本利润

Which Determines Grain's Production Price:Market Price or the Cost & Profit of Production?

建立合理有效的粮食生产价格形成机制,是确保工农城乡和谐发展的关键环节。本文在对中国粮食生产价格形成进行制度分析的基础上,运用RSVAR等计量方法,实证研究了粮食生产价格与市场粮价、种粮成本利润之间的数量关系。结果表明:1978-2011年间,种粮成本利润对粮食生产价格形成发挥了一定的作用,该作用主要表现为长期因果关系,但不具有短期因果关系;新世纪以来的粮食生产价格形成机制中,市场粮价已经成为主导因素,种粮成本的影响则十分微弱;粮食生产价格对市场粮价、种粮成本的传导作用并不明显。粮食收购市场的价格传导机制不通畅,价格形成侧重流通领域、而偏离生产领域等问题,不利于粮食生产的可持续发展。

Building a reasonable and effective formation mechanism of grain's production price is the key link to insure the harmonious development of the industry and agriculture and the city and the country.This paper positively studies the quantitative relationship among the grain's production price,market price and cost & profit of production by using the quantitative methods like RSVAR after systematically analyzing the production price formation of Chinese grain.The result shows that from 1978 to 2011,the grain's cost & profit of production played a certain role in the formation of grain's production price.The role was mainly the long-term causality but not a short-term one.In the formation mechanism of grain's production price since the new century,the grain's market price is the leading factor but the effect of grain's cost is very weak.The grain's production price does not play an obvious conducting role in grain's market price and production cost.The price conduction mechanism of grain's purchase market is not smooth.The price formation particularly emphasize circulation field but deviate from production field,which is unfavorable for the sustainable development of grain's production.