中小学最优避难疏散模型与选址应用

A Location-allocation Model for School Emergency Evacuation

本文以区位-配给模型理论为指导,以路网疏散距离最短、场地服务容纳量最大为目标,构建最优避难疏散模型,以解决中小学避难场地选址问题。本文从保障学生避难疏散场地的安全性和适宜性角度出发,通过建立环境制约因素模型,对地形坡度、断裂带、河流湖泊、易燃易爆站点、高层建筑物倒塌范围和文物古迹保护范围6大因素进行空间叠加分析,计算了实际的避难需求和供给容量。为减少利用直线距离直接作为疏散道路产生的误差,本文通过对不受影响的路网信息进行网络分析,计算最短疏散道路,以获取实际的路网距离。本文将该方法应用于北京市西城区中小学避难场地选址的优化方案,有效地解决了中小学避难场地选址问题。

In this paper we aim to develop a location-allocation model for the school emergency shelter selection by using GIS.Through the studies of emergency shelter in recently years,a location-allocation model for school emergency shelter selection is proposed.Based on location-allocation model theory,the optimal evacuation model for school emergency shelter selection is made with constrains of the largest site service capacity and the shortest network distance.In the process of the model construction,we take school emergency shelter’s safety and suitability into full consideration.According to the characteristics of this model,the environmental constraints model is constructed to make spatial overlay analysis of six factors by using ArcGIS 9.3.The six factors are terrain slope,rivers and lakes,earthquake fault zone,flammable and explosive site,collapsed range of High-rise buildings,and protection range of cultural relics.The environmental constraints model respectively discusses the five factors influence range when the earthquake happens.And the actual capacity of the evacuation demand and site supply is calculated in this way.In order to reduce the error,the straight-line distance as the evacuation path is not chosen in this paper.Through the network analysis of the unaffected road,the shortest evacuation road is found.Considering the largest site service capacity and the shortest network distance,is the key to solve the problem.By introducing the location-allocation model theory,the solution of the optimal evacuation model is obtained to select the school emergency shelter.In this paper,school emergency shelter in Xicheng District of Beijing City is selected by using this technical method which can effectively solve the problem of school emergency shelter selection.This optimization method is an effective measure to prevent the school from disaster and provide safe site for the student.This academic technology is introduced as the references to relevant researchers on the school emergency shelter selection.