货币替代视角的香港人民币货币区研究

Research on RMB Currency Area in Hong Kong from Viewpoint of Currency Substitution

在对中国大陆与香港货币一体化相关背景和文献梳理的基础上,先分析人民币对港币的替代程度,再建立AR(1)-GARCH(1,1)模型具体分析人民币对港币的货币替代的影响因素,结果显示人民币对港币是基于套利用途的货币替代;进一步从货币替代视角考察香港人民币货币区的可行性表明,香港同中国大陆的协同性日益增强,人民币对港币的替代规模持续增加,短期内在香港建立人民币货币区存在一定的障碍。因此,应使两地自由贸易区向关税同盟过渡,建立香港与内地统一的资本市场,互相开放劳动力市场,建立汇率目标区,长远来看以市场自发演进为主推行香港人民币化。

Hong Kong RMB offshore market has developed quickly and RMB deposits increased fast from year 2010. On the basis of dealing with literatures and relative background of monetary integration between Hong Kong and China mainland, the paper firstly analyzed the substitution level of RMB to HK $ , then expounded the influence factors of RMB substitution to HK $ on constructing AR （ 1 ） - GARCH （ 1,1 ） model, and concluded that it was the interest arbitrage institution. Secondly, from the viewpoint of currency substitution, the feasibility of RMB currency area was investigated, and concluded that since economic synergy between two areas was growing, and substitution scale was continually increasing, in the short run it was difficult to establish RMB currency area, and in the long run Hong Kong RMB Yuanify was suggested on the basis of market spontaneous evolution. Finally, relative countermeasures and suggestions were proposed.