摘要
引入一种新的参考大气方案,对AREM模式动力框架进行静力扣除修改,并选取暴雨个例进行后报模拟试验,考察模式改进后对暴雨过程的预报效果。试验结果表明:新静力扣除方案对模式预报强降水有较好改进,其主要表现在暴雨、大暴雨范围和强度及其中心位置预报上;新方案也提高了模式对气象要素场的预报准确度,特别是对流层中下层及下平流层的温度和纬向风预报,较模式修改前有了较明显的改进。汛期批量试验进一步证实了以上结果,该新静力扣除方案合理有效。
A new scheme of reference atmosphere is introduced to modify the hydrostatic extraction of AREM dynamic framework in this paper.A representative storm case is selected to make post-prediction simulation experimentation to validate the effects of the modified model.The results show that this new extraction does better for strong precipitation prediction.There are good impacts on the range,intensity and central location of rainstorms and severe ones.The new extraction improves AREM’s forecast exactitude of meteorological factor fields,especially the prediction of temperature and zonal wind in the middle and low troposphere and low stratosphere has been more remarkably improved comparing with the non-revised model.A lot of simulations in flood season validate the results mentioned above.The new hydrostatic extraction is reasonable and effectual.
出处
《暴雨灾害》
2013年第2期132-141,共10页
Torrential Rain and Disasters
基金
国家水利部公益性行业科研专项项目(201301062)
国家气象行业专项课题(GYHY200906010)
关键词
AREM
数值模式
静力扣除
暴雨
模拟
降水
AREM
modified model
hydrostatic extraction
rainstorm
simulation
precipitation
