基于市场需求、结构、竞争力的出口波动影响因素分析——以我国苹果汁出口为例

Research on Influencing Factorsors Export Growth Based on Market Demand,Structure and Competitiveness——Evidence from China's Apple Juice Export

本文以我国具有比较优势、影响较大的苹果汁出口为实证对象,运用修正后的CMS模型,从市场需求、结构和竞争力三个不同视角对我国苹果汁出口影响因素的作用强度进行准确测算和比较分析。研究发现:我国苹果汁的出口增长在很大程度上是由国际市场需求拉动的,受外部经济环境的影响较大,因此,恢复竞争力因素对我国苹果汁出口的高贡献率,将提升竞争力作为促进出口可持续增长的源泉,有助于变被动为主动,改变我国苹果汁出口长期依赖国际市场需求的局面;受出口增长模式、低价竞争、国际贸易壁垒等的影响,我国苹果汁的竞争优势并不明显,本文的研究为找出影响我国苹果汁竞争力的主导因素、推动我国苹果汁出口可持续增长提供了经验支持。

This paper took China＇ s apple juice exports with comparative advantage and enormous impact as the empirical object, and analyzed the effect intensity of the influencing factors from three perspectives of market demand, structure and competitiveness using revised CMS model. The study came to conclusions： market demand was the main influencing factor of China＇s apple juice export growth, but it was affected by the external economic environment easily. So the restoration of competitiveness＇ role should be the main source of sustainable growth of China＇s apple juice exports. Affected by export growth mode, low-price competition and international trade barriers, the competitive advantages of China＇s apple juice was not obvious. This study provides empirical support to identify the dominant influencing factor and promote the sustainable growth of China＇s apple juice exports.