区域客运交通能源消费量预测方法研究

A Prediction Method of Regional Passenger Transport Energy Consumption

为探索区域内交通行业实施节能减排及低碳化发展的路径和措施,评估区域内交通行业的节能潜力,需要对将来某一时点区域交通能源消费量进行预测,文章针对区域客运交通能源消费量的预测方法进行了研究。计算过程中关键的数据基础在于区域客运周转量与交通工具单位能耗,文章构建了一个简单规范的自上而下模型用于预测区域客运周转量;在确定各交通工具的单位能耗时,考虑了在同一种交通工具中使用不同燃料的比例,并以线性复合的方式得出了每种交通工具的复合单位能耗,基于此,可计算出区域客运交通能源消费量。以预测2020年中新广州知识城客运能源消费量为例对计算过程进行具体说明,计算结果显示,2020年知识城客运交通能源消费总量约为5.27万t标准煤。

To evaluate energy-saving potential and explore the paths of low-carbon development of the transportation industry in a region,it is necessary to predict time point of transportation energy consumption in the future.Prediction method of regional passenger transport energy consumption was studied.In the calculation process,regional passenger turnover and unit energy consumption of transport means were the key data.A simple standard top-down model was built to predict regional passenger turnover,while in calculating energy consumption of transport means per unit,it was important to consider ratio of different fuels in one transport means and obtain energy consumption of each means per unit in mode of linear composite,based on which the regional passenger transport energy consumption could be calculated.Example of predicting the passenger energy consumption of Sino-Singapore Guangzhou Knowledge City in 2020 was taken to illustrate the calculating process,which showed that total passenger transportation energy consumption was about 52,700 tons of standard coal.