市场化进程中农户粮食收支结构和储备变化的实证分析——以东部沿海地区为例

Household Grain Reserves in Process of Marketization: An Empirical Analysis of Eastern Coastal Area in China

基于农业部2000-2009年农户固定观察点资料,运用时间序列方法,对我国东部沿海地区农户粮食收支、储粮行为的变化进行了实证分析。研究表明,东部地区农户家庭存粮可用时间缩短,农户家庭粮食消费对市场的依赖程度越来越高;农户粮食出售量逐年提高,但出售给国家的粮食量却在减少;作为主食的稻谷储备和消费呈逆向变动趋势,稻谷消费更多地从市场上获取。这种变化特征将影响农户家庭粮食安全进而影响国家粮食安全。为此,应加大对农户储粮的政策扶持力度,调整公共储备粮的品种结构,增加稻谷储备。

Based on the farm households fixed observation data （2000-2009） from Agriculture Ministry, this paper analyzed the households grain storage behavior dynamics in China＇ s eastern coastal area using time-series methodology. The results showed that the available consuming time of the food stocks was decreasing during the period from 2000 to 2009. Farm households＇ food consumption increasingly depended on the food market. Farmers had gradually increased the amount of grain sold to market, while the amount sold to government was decreasing. One of the main source of food is rice. Its storage and consumption changed in the opposite directions. More and more rice was got from the market other than own storage. This trend is threatening households＇ and thus the national food security. So policies need to raise the support for household rice stock, adjust the varieties of public grain reserve, increase rice reserves.