我国产业部门CO_2排放特征及其影响因素模型研究

Modeling research on CO_2 emissions characteristics and its influence factors of China′s industrial sectors

研究我国产业部门CO2的排放特征及其影响因素,对我国的温室气体减排具有重要意义.为此对1990～2011年我国三次产业、第二产业、轻重工业以及工业分行业的CO2排放量进行了推算,并运用完全因素分解模型,将影响我国产业部门CO2排放的因素分为经济因素、结构因素、效率因素和排放因素,对历年各因素的影响效果进行了量化研究,得出以下结论:我国产业部门CO2排放主要来自第二产业,第二产业中CO2排放主要来自工业,工业中的CO2排放主要来自重工业,重工业中的CO2排放主要来自石油加工、炼焦及核燃料加工业,化学原料及化学制品制造业,非金属矿物制品业,黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业,有色金属冶炼及压延加工业和电力、热力的生产和供应业6个重点行业;经济因素是我国产业部门CO2排放量增加的最主要影响因素,目前我国产业部门CO2减排主要依靠效率因素,结构因素和排放因素的作用都不明显;控制我国CO2排放量的快速增长,转变经济增长方式是重要途径,产业及行业结构调整将成为中国未来减排的关键.

Research on CO2 emissions characteristics of industrial sectors in China and their influencing factors is important for China＇s greenhouse gas emissions reduction. The CO2 emissions from energy consumption of China＇s three industries, the secondary industry, light industry, heavy industry and industrial trades, are calculated on the basis of the statistical data from 1990 to 2011. The factors influencing the CO2 emissions of industrial sectors are decomposed into economy factor, structure factor, efficiency factor and emission factor through the complete decomposition model. And then, the effects of these factors over years are quantitatively analyzed. The analytical results show that, firstly, China＇s industrial sectors＇ CO2 emissions are mainly from the secondary industry whose emissions are from industry mostly. And further, the industry＇s CO2 emissions are mostly from heavy industry, such as these six major trades （processing of petroleum, coking, processing of nuclear fuel industry, manufacture of raw chemical materials and chemicals, manufacture of non-metallic mineral products, smelting and pressing of ferrous metals, smelting and pressing of non-ferrous metals, production and supply of electric power and heat power）. Secondly, economy factor contributes to the CO2 emissions increase. Structure factor and emission factor play an insignificant role in CO2 emissions reduction. China＇s CO2 emissions reduction relies mainly on efficiency factor during the inspection period. Finally, changing the mode of economic growth is an effective way to slow down the rapid growth of China＇s CO2 emissions. So structure adjustment of industries and trades will be the key to China＇s emissions reduction in future.