我国金融发展与经济增长的非线性关系研究——来自动态面板数据门限模型的经验证据

The Nonlinear Relationship between Financial Development and Economic Growth in China:Evidence from Dynamic Panel Threshold Model

本文采用我国31个省市1979～2008年的年度面板数据，以通货膨胀率为门限变量，运用动态面板数据门限模型，探讨金融发展与经济增长之间的非线性关系。研究结果表明：金融发展与经济增长之间的关系存在通货膨胀率门限效应，通货膨胀率门限值约为5．05％左右；当通货膨胀率低于门限值时，金融发展与经济增长是正相关的；而当通货膨胀率超过门限值时，金融发展与经济增长是负相关的。这意味着金融发展仅在低通货膨胀水平下有利于促进经济增长。

Based on China＇s 31 province -level panel data from 1979 to 2008, setting inflation as the threshold variable and applying the dynamic panel threshold model, this paper investigates the nonlinear relationship between financial development and economic growth in China. The results indicate that there exists an inflation threshold effect between financial development and economic growth, and the inflation threshold is about 5.05%. Financial development is positively correlated with economic growth when inflation below the threshold; while inflation above the threshold, financial development is negatively correlated with economic growth. This implies that financial development may promote economic growth only under low inflation.