摘要
本文采用我国31个省市1979~2008年的年度面板数据,以通货膨胀率为门限变量,运用动态面板数据门限模型,探讨金融发展与经济增长之间的非线性关系。研究结果表明:金融发展与经济增长之间的关系存在通货膨胀率门限效应,通货膨胀率门限值约为5.05%左右;当通货膨胀率低于门限值时,金融发展与经济增长是正相关的;而当通货膨胀率超过门限值时,金融发展与经济增长是负相关的。这意味着金融发展仅在低通货膨胀水平下有利于促进经济增长。
Based on China's 31 province -level panel data from 1979 to 2008, setting inflation as the threshold variable and applying the dynamic panel threshold model, this paper investigates the nonlinear relationship between financial development and economic growth in China. The results indicate that there exists an inflation threshold effect between financial development and economic growth, and the inflation threshold is about 5.05%. Financial development is positively correlated with economic growth when inflation below the threshold; while inflation above the threshold, financial development is negatively correlated with economic growth. This implies that financial development may promote economic growth only under low inflation.
出处
《金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第7期74-86,共13页
Journal of Financial Research
基金
中国博士后科学基金面上项目(资助编号:2013M530448)
国家社会科学基金重点项目"我国中长期经济增长与结构变动趋势研究"(项目编号:09AZD013)
国家开发银行课题"双重环流--开放经济下的中国资本流动"的资助
关键词
金融发展
经济增长
动态面板数据门限模型
Financial development, Economic growth, Dynamic panel threshold model