基于循环修正模式的云南省水资源短缺程度分析

Research on the Degree of Water Shortage in Yunnan Province Based on Circulating Correction Mode

区域水资源短缺评价是水资源风险研究的基础。前期的研究多采用单一评价方法进行,致使评价结果存在差异。论文提出采用循环修正模式对单一评价方法得出的不同评价结果进行组合修正。通过构建云南省水资源短缺综合评价指标体系,利用模糊物元、模糊识别等多种单一评价方法进行评价,最后运用平均值法、Boarda法和Compeland法三种组合评价方法对单一评价方法得到的不同结果进行组合评价,建立了基于循环修正模式的水资源短缺程度评价模型并加以应用,给出了云南省16个地、市、州的水资源短缺程度的排序及其缺水类型的划分。

With continuing population growth and rapid economic development,coupled with increasingly serious water pollution,growing shortage of available water resources,water crisis shows up in many regions.Evaluation of the regional water shortage is the basis for the study of water resources risk.Previous studies,with the use of a single evaluation method,resulting in differences in evaluation results.In this paper,the circulating correction model derived from a single evaluation method generated a combination correction of the evaluation results.Comprehensive evaluation index system constructed indicates water shortage in Yunnan Province as well as aspects of water economics,construction control,water supply,water usage and water environment.The use of fuzzy matter-element,fuzzy pattern recognition,and other single evaluation method,finally,gains a combination of three evaluation methods,namely,average method,Boarda method and Compeland method for the different evaluation results.The Kendall test and Spearman test methods were carried out for pre-and post-conformance tests to ensure reliability of the model cycle correction in this paper.The establishment of the degree of shortage of water resources evaluation model based on the circulating correction mode and application,gives the present status of Yunnan Province including 16 cities in terms of degree of water shortage as well as the lack of water type in 2010,and corresponding countermeasures are put forward.