地方政府的支出扩张如何影响经济效率?——基于生产率促进型投资周期性的考察

How Does Local Governments' Expenditure Expansion Affect Economic Efficiency?——The Analysis Based on the Cyclicality of Productivity-Improving Investment

基于对内生增长周期理论中"生产率促进型投资"周期特征的考察,使用随机前沿分析方法,本文考察了中国地方政府的支出扩张对于经济效率的影响。作为支出扩张发挥作用的基础,我们首先考察了生产率促进型投资的周期性。我们发现:在产业层面上,以长期投资为代表的生产率促进型投资呈现出了显著的顺周期特征,而金融约束是这种顺周期性可解释的原因之一,因而基于内生增长周期理论的推断,衰退期的支出扩张应当有利于经济效率的提高。但是,实证分析结果表明,地方政府在衰退期的支出扩张并未对经济效率发挥促进作用。我们发现,支出扩张所引发的固定资产投资对企业研发投资的挤出效应和信贷资源的低效率配置是这种作用难以发挥的重要原因。

Based on the investigation of the cycle of productivity - improving investment in the endoge- nous growth cycle thoery, using SFA method, this paper analyses the expanional expenditure＇s influence on e- conomic efficiency. As the basic logic of expenditure expansion＇s effect, we explore the cyclicality of produc- tivity - improving investment. We find that, on the industry level, the productivity - improving investment, re- presented by the long - term investment, shows obvious procyclical feature, with financial constraints one of the explainable reasons. Thus the expenditure expansion in the recession should promote economic efficiency by the endogenous growth cycle thoery. However, on the contrary of our theoretical expectation, the expan- sional expenditure in the recession doesn＇ t show any positive effect on the economic efficiency. We find that the crow - out effect of fixed investment brought by the expansional expenditure on the R＆D investment and the inefficiency allocation in credit resource are the main reason for this.