高速滑坡远程预测的块体运动模型

KINEMATIC BLOCK MODEL OF LONG RUN-OUT PREDICTION FOR HIGH-SPEED LANDSLIDES

基于对高速滑坡发生机理的认识及对其运动特征和堆积特征的分析 ,认为滑体内部的速度和变形具有不均匀性 ,且运动过程伴随着变形能的积累、释放和损耗。在此基础上 ,假定滑体的运动形式是连续可变的 ,建立了预测高速滑坡远程的块体运动模型。应用该模型可以模拟滑坡发生后滑体运动的全过程 ,同时可预测滑坡的最大滑速和最大滑距。利用该模型对洒勒山滑坡等实例进行了数值模拟 。

Based on the analysis on the formation mechanism and characters of motion and accumulation for high speed landslide, the speed and deformation of the sliding mass are of inhomogeneity, and its motion process is in company with the accumulation, release and loss of strain energy. Then on the assumption that the motion form of high speed landslide is continuous and variable, the kinematic block model of long run out prediction for high speed landslides is presented. By the model, the whole sliding course can be simulated, and the maximum sliding speed and maximum sliding distance can be predicted. The results of computer simulations for some cases like Saleshan landslide are in accord well with actual cases.