摘要
利用全球优秀的数值天气模式和自行制作的较高分辨率的多模式、多初值区域数值模式构建了一个包括17个成员的集合预报系统,对2007年严重影响浙江的16号"罗莎"台风做了集合预报试验。分析了路径集合、面条图、邮票图、降水概率分布等多种集合产品,并对路径和降水进行检验。结果表明:集合预报对台风路径和降水总体稳定,质量明显优于单一模式预报。同时还对台风路径和降水预报偏差进行了分析。
The global excellent numerical weather models,self-made muti and multiple initial regional numerical models with high resolution are used to build a ensemble forecast system with 17 members.It is done to predict the sixteenth typhoon Krosa which seriously influenced Zhejiang in 2007.The track sets,spaghetti graphs,stamp graphs,precipitation probability forecast etc.charts are analyzed,the typhoon track and precipitation test are done also.The results show： the ensemble forecast products of typhoon track and precipitation are stability,which are superior to the single forecast mode products.Also,deviation of typhoon track and precipitation forecast are analyzed.
出处
《科技通报》
北大核心
2013年第7期24-29,共6页
Bulletin of Science and Technology
基金
浙江省气象局青年科技专项"杭州主城区短时临近精细化预报服务系统"资助(2008QN15)
关键词
集合预报
台风
路径
降水
检验
ensemble forecasting
typhoon
track
precipitation
test
