重庆市人口年龄结构与经济增长的关系研究

Correlation between Population Age Structure and Economic Growth of Chongqing

重庆市直辖以来,人口状况进入到了低出生率、低死亡率和低自然增长率阶段,利用抚养比作为测算人口年龄结构转变的指标,测算出了重庆市已经处于人口红利期;运用计量模型分析重庆市在人口红利阶段人口结构对投资及经济增长的影响,结论表明人口结构对投资存在影响,在人口转变过程中,重庆市应该抓住机遇最大限度地收获人口红利。

The population situation enters into a period of low birth rate, low death rate and low natural growth rate since Chongqing became a municipality, the dependency ratio is used as population age structure change calculation indicator to reveal that Chongqing is staying in demographic dividend period, computing model is used to analyze the effect of population structure on investment and economic growth of Chongqing in demographic dividend period and the results show that the population structure has impact on investment and that Chongqing should take the opportunity to harvest demographic dividend to most extent in the process of population change.