基于气象模型分析东北三省近50年水稻孕穗期障碍型低温冷害时空变化特征

Spatial-temporal Variation of Sterile-type Chilling Damages at Rice Booting Stage in Northeast China in Last 50 Years Based on Meteorological Model

采用水稻生长发育和产量形成气象影响模式计算出的东北三省1961-2010年水稻空壳率作为判定障碍型冷害的基础资料,利用累积距平曲线和小波分析等方法分析近50a东北三省水稻孕穗期障碍型冷害空间分布特征及时间变化规律,以期为预测水稻孕穗期障碍型冷害提供依据。结果表明,东北三省水稻孕穗期障碍型冷害主要发生在吉林东北部和黑龙江东南部。吉林冷害的阶段性变化表现为1972年以前多发,1973-1981年少发,1982-1985年转入多发,1986-2001年少发,2002年开始转入一个新的多发阶段;黑龙江省冷害的阶段性变化与吉林省较相似;辽宁省冷害的阶段性变化不明显。黑龙江和吉林的冷害分别存在24a、16a和24a、8a左右的准周期变化,辽宁无显著的准周期。进入21世纪后,东北三省水稻孕穗期障碍型冷害明显增多。综合各时间尺度周期外推结果,黑龙江和吉林水稻孕穗期障碍型冷害目前的多发趋势将维持到2016年前后,辽宁的趋势不明显。

To provide the basis for predicting sterile-type chilling damage, taking rice shell rate from 1961 to 2010 in Northeast China as a basic data of sterile-type chilling damage, the distribution and variation of sterile-type c damage at rice booting stage in Northeast China in last 50 years was analyzed by using of the methods of cumulative curve and Wavelet analysis. The results showed that the sterile-type chilling damage at rice booting stage was mainly distributed in the northeast of Jilin and southeast of Heilongjiang. In Jilin province, chilling damage was increasing before 1972 and decreasing during 1973 - 1981, then increasing during 1982 - 1985 and decreasing during 1986 - 2001, increasing since 2002. The situation in Heilongjiang province was similar to in Jilin province, but it was not changed obviously in Liaoning province. There was province, 24 years and 8 years in Jilin province, but periodic variation with 24 years and 16 years in Heilongjiang there was not obvious period in Liaoning province. There was an evident that sterile-type chilling damage at rice booting stage was increasing in Northeast China after the the 21^st century. It was estimated that the upward trend of sterile-type chilling damage could be up Heilongjiang province and Jilin province, but not obvious in Liaoning province.