户籍制度视角下的江苏省人口时空格局响应

Response of Temporal-Spatial Population Pattern to the Household Register System in Jiangsu Province

以江苏省为例,选取人口密度为基础数据,以县域为研究单元,通过空间自相关、重心迁移以及注入脉冲响应分析,刻画江苏省人口时空格局与户籍制度之间的时空响应关系及趋势。结果表明:1990-2010年江苏省人口格局整体保持"南高北低"的态势,该现象与社会经济发展水平呈正相关关系;人口密度相似的地区在空间上呈集聚分布,并呈明显的沿江化特征;各县市对户籍制度改革的响应具有地域性,南北响应差异逐渐缩小;人口空间格局对户籍制度的响应具有滞后性,速度呈现出由加快到平稳的态势。在此基础上,根据研究结论提出3点建议:第一,在改革思路上实现"两保两新",阶梯式、差别化赋予权利;其次,积极推进苏北地区的社会保障体系改革;最后,通过产业发展上的"以业控人"和城市发展上的合理规划、科学布局防止流动人口加重"城市病"。

Taking county as research unit,with the data of population density,the paper analyzes the response relation between spatial-temporal pattern of population and household registration system in Jiangsu Province,using the methods of spatial autocorrelation,gravity transfer and injection pulse response analyses.The results show that：from 1990 to 2010 the population pattern in Jiangsu remained a phenomenon of ＂High in south and low in north＂,which had positive correlation to the level of economic and social development;the regions of similar population density were distributed in a cluster form,and spread along the rivers;the responses of the counties to the reform of the household registration system were different,but the difference narrowed gradually;the response of spatial pattern of population to the census register system had a lagged feature,and the response speed accelerated first then tended to be stable.On the basis of the results,the paper puts forward three suggestions：Firstly,realizing the idea of ＂two confirmed and two new＂ in the reform,conferring rights in a hierarchy and differentiation way;Secondly,promoting energetically the social security system reform in the northern area of the province;Finally,controlling the population through development of industries,and making reasonable planning on urban development and allocation of population,so as to prevent the floating population from aggravating ＂urban disease＂.