外汇储备、货币供应量与物价波动关系实证研究

Relationship between Foreign Exchange Reserves,Money Supply and Price Fluctuation:An Empirical Study

以2001—2012年的月度数据为样本,运用ADF检验、协整检验和格兰杰因果关系检验,从实证分析的角度验证了外汇储备、货币供应量与物价三者的关系。研究结果表明,外汇储备、货币供应量和物价之间存在着长期均衡的关系,外汇储备的增加会导致货币供应量的增加,货币供应量的增加又会引起通货膨胀。

Choosing the monthly data from 2001--2012 as the sample and using ADF test, co-integration test and Granger causality test, this paper analyzes the relationship between foreign exchange reserves, money supply and price fluctuation. Researches show that a long-run balanced relation exists between these three： the increase of foreign exchange reserves causes the rise of money supply, and the rise of mon- ey supply leads to inflation.