低碳模式下的轨道交通客流分配方法

The Assignment Method of Urban Rail Transit Passenger Flow in Low-Carbon-Model

分析国内外轨道交通客流需求预测机理,针对常规客流预测模型在低碳模式下存在的缺陷,对常规模型进行了优化改进。在"四阶段法"中的方式划分和交通分配阶段引入低碳因子,考虑低碳出行链,结合多方式多类型综合网络条件下的均衡分配模型,提出控制和减少城市交通系统碳排放的双层规划模型,并采用模拟退火优化算法对模型进行求解。最后将模型运用于上海市综合交通网络客流分配,对该模型和算法进行验证。结果表明,改进后的低碳模式下的轨道交通客流分配模型,能够更准确的反映轨道交通客流分布,有效地降低了城市交通系统的碳排放总量。

This paper analyses the forecasting theory of urban rail transit passenger flow.Based on the disadvantage of the general traffic prediction model in low-carbon-mode,the general model is optimized.By adding low-carbon factor in the modal split and trip assignment and considering the low-carbon trip chain and multi-modal multi-class assignment（MMA） model in the integrated network,a Bi-Level Programming Model of controlling and reducing the carbon emission is put forward.The model is solved by simulating annealing optimization algorithm.At last,the proposed model is applied to the passenger flow assignment of the integrated transportation network in Shanghai,and an example is presented to verify the effectiveness of the method.The result shows that the improved model can effectively reflect the urban rail transit passenger flow distribution and reduce urban transportation systems carbon emission.