粮食应急指挥系统预警机制和预案定制的研究

Research of Early Warning Mechanisms and Plans' Production for System of Food Emergency and Commanding

随着我国经济的快速发展,人口的剧增,生态环境的恶化,各种灾害险情时有发生。为了应对突发事件,确保粮食应急供给,维护社会稳定,研究城市粮食应急指挥系统具有重大意义。文中叙述了城市粮食应急指挥系统中预警机制的数学模型、工作原理以及运用工作流技术灵活地定制预警预案。从系统的预警需求出发,建立以模糊综合评价模型为核心的预警机制,实现预警机制准确有效的综合判断。当灾情发生后,预警机制检测并做出判断,获得评价结果,系统根据评价结果启动相应的预警等级预案。预警预案的定制以其短时间内变更频繁的特点要求系统具有较好的灵活性和适应性。以工作流技术为基础平台,能够方便灵活轻松地定制预警等级预案,极大地满足了各种复杂、变更频繁的需求。通过分析、验证,城市粮食应急指挥系统实现了及时准确的预警以及灵活方便地定制预警预案。

With the rapid development of the country＇ s economy, a surge in population, the deterioration of ecological environment, all kinds of disaster risk happen occasionally. In order to deal with emergencies, ensure food emergency supply and maintain social stability, studying urban food emergency command system is of great significance. Review the mathematics model and working theory of the early warning mechanism and how to use workflow technology to customize early wanting plans flexibly. Based on the early warning system requirement,it establishes a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model as the core of the early warning system, realizes the accurate valid comprehensive judgments in the system of food emergency and commending. When a disaster occurs, the warning mechanism detects and makes a judgment. The system starts corresponding level plan under the judgment. On account of the early warning plans have changing frequently in a short time. It requires that the system has strong flexibility and adaptability. Based on workflow technology platform,it that customizes the early warning level plans facilitates flexibly and easily, greatly satisfies the needs that are complex and change frequently. Through the analysis and validation, the system has realized the accurate warning in time and flexible production of early warning plans.