中国沿海省份旅游产业发展水平综合评价及时空格局演变

Comprehensive Evaluation and Temporal-spatial Evolution of the Development Level of Tourism in China's Coastal Provinces

选择能够反映沿海省份旅游产业发展水平的各类统计指标,运用主成分TOPSIS法对沿海11个省份2000,2005,2010年旅游产业经济发展水平进行综合评价与比较,采用马尔科夫链和ESDA法探讨旅游产业发展水平区域差异的时间和空间格局演变。沿海11个省份旅游产业发展水平存在明显的"俱乐部趋同"现象,区域差异不断拉大,两极分化趋势增强;旅游产业发展水平呈现出较为显著的空间自相关,旅游产业发展水平相似的地区呈集聚分布;从热点区分布及格局演变来看,旅游产业发展重心有由南向北迁移的趋势,以长三角为中心、以珠三角和环渤海为两翼的"一体两翼"的旅游产业发展格局渐趋明朗。

By the statistical indicators that reflect the development level of tourism industry and the principal component TOPSIS method, the article makes a comprehensive evaluation and comparison of the development level of tourism industry of 11 coastal provinces （regions） in 2000, 2005 and 2010. And the method of the Markov chain and ESDA explores the spatial pattern and the evolution characteristics of the development level of tourism industry of 11 coastal provinces in the past 10 years. There exists obvious ＂club convergence＂ phenomenon. The regional differences are widening and two levels of differentiation trend is strengthened. The level of development of the tourism industry showing a more significant spatial autocorrelation, the development of tourism industry showed a similar level of regional agglomeration distribution. From the distribution and pattern of evolution of the hot zone, the coastal development of the tourism industry of the 11 provinces （regions） shows the tendency of migration from south to north. The tourism industry development pattern ＂one main body and two wings＂ with the Yangtze River Delta as the center, the Pearl River Delta and the Bohai Rim as two wings is becoming clear and clear.